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President Joe Biden is all however assured to win the Democratic presidential nomination in 2024 because the incumbent. However one in all his Democratic challengers, anti-vaxxer Robert F. Kennedy Jr., is gaining a shocking quantity of traction for somebody who the nationwide celebration views as a fringe candidate.
Kennedy, who introduced his candidacy in April, is the nephew of former President John F. Kennedy and son of former Legal professional Normal Robert F. Kennedy. He backed Hillary Clinton for president in 2016. However that’s the place his relationship with the Democratic political institution ends.
Disavowed by members of his family, the beforehand celebrated environmental justice lawyer who helped clear up New York’s Hudson River now peddles false conspiracy theories in regards to the Covid-19 vaccine, all whereas receiving the reward of distinguished right-wing figures and Silicon Valley billionaires. His marketing campaign is based on ending what he says is the “corrupt merger of state and company energy that’s threatening now to impose a brand new sort of company feudalism in our nation,” he mentioned in his announcement speech.
He sounds extra like a MAGA Republican than a Democrat. And Kennedy himself has acknowledged that he holds controversial views. “I’m not a really perfect presidential candidate,” he mentioned in April. “I’m not one in all these individuals who mentioned I’ve to watch out as a result of sooner or later I’m going to be within the White Home.”
Regardless of all of that, Kennedy appears to have struck a chord with voters. A June ballot by the Economist and YouGov discovered that he had a web favorability score of 19 share factors, in comparison with Biden’s minus-9 and former President Donald Trump’s minus-10 web rankings. Kennedy has nearly 16 p.c help amongst possible Democratic major voters on common as of late June and as a lot as 20 p.c help in a single ballot, however remains to be effectively behind Biden.
That is perhaps a mirrored image of the truth that Individuals nonetheless revere the Kennedy title and are prepared to present him an opportunity due to his place in a storied political dynasty, even when they might not know a lot about his platform. (Upstarts usually ballot effectively initially, however their numbers are likely to go down as voters begin to be taught extra about them.) It may additionally be a sign of Biden’s difficulties defending his document, notably on the financial system, to a celebration searching for new blood: In an April Related Press/NORC ballot, most Democrats mentioned they didn’t need him to run once more, however would again him in a common election if it got here to it.
Biden isn’t at present going through any actual menace from Kennedy in relation to profitable his celebration’s nomination. However Kennedy might show a harmful distraction, notably if Iowa and New Hampshire defy Biden’s needs to place South Carolina first on the Democratic major calendar. In the event that they do, Biden could not seem on the poll in New Hampshire, and will not have a major presence in Iowa earlier than the state’s caucuses. That might create a gap for Kennedy — and doubtlessly generate a clumsy information cycle for the president as he tries to harness Democratic enthusiasm.
“There’s all the time a pathway,” mentioned J. Ann Selzer, an Iowa-based pollster, of Kennedy’s prospects within the state. “As I say in regards to the caucuses, anybody can come to Iowa and win, and we’ve seen it occur.”
Kennedy has pushed conspiracy theories and received help from highly effective allies throughout the political spectrum
Biden received’t debate Kennedy or another of his Democratic challengers, as is typical in a major the place an incumbent is working for reelection. But when he did, a debate would reveal stark variations between them.
Kennedy has change into one of many main voices of the anti-vaccine motion. He’s pushed disinformation about vaccines since 2005, when he falsely claimed that some childhood vaccines had harmful ranges of mercury that might trigger autism, regardless of the very fact scientists had already confirmed that mercury ranges in these vaccines weren’t dangerous and didn’t result in autism. A few of his members of the family spoke out towards his anti-vaccine rhetoric: “He has helped to unfold harmful misinformation over social media and is complicit in sowing mistrust of the science behind vaccines,” two of his siblings and his late niece wrote in a 2019 Politico op-ed.
However Kennedy’s profile nonetheless took off in the course of the pandemic. He likened vaccine passports to the Holocaust in remarks at a January 2022 rally in Washington that he later apologized for, and that have been even condemned by his spouse, Curb Your Enthusiasm actress Cheryl Hines. In a bestselling 2021 guide, he accused Anthony Fauci, former chief medical adviser to Biden and a member of Trump’s White Home coronavirus activity drive, of utilizing the pandemic to arrange a “coup d’état towards Western democracy.” He additionally based the non-profit Youngsters’s Well being Protection, which has change into one in all America’s most influential anti-vaccine advocacy teams. Fb and Instagram took down the group’s accounts, however have since reinstated Kennedy’s private account now that he’s working for president.
Kennedy’s views would possibly resonate with the quarter of Individuals who have been nonetheless skeptical of Covid-19 vaccines as of March 2023. However it’s out of step with the bulk who’ve been vaccinated or plan to get vaccinated. Kennedy appears to acknowledge that hole, and has largely avoided discussing his views on vaccines on the marketing campaign path besides in veiled references.
Kennedy’s embrace of conspiracy theories isn’t restricted to vaccines. He claims that his father wasn’t killed by Sirhan Sirhan and has pushed for his launch from jail, opposed by all however one in all his seven siblings. He’s argued that 5G cellphone transmission towers are getting used to “harvest our information and management our conduct.” He claimed that Republicans stole the 2004 presidential election. He blames psychopharmaceuticals for mass shootings. And he says the CIA had a task in former President Kennedy’s assassination and that the company might sooner or later come after him.
Kennedy has drawn highly effective allies in advancing his views. Simply this week, podcaster Joe Rogan and Twitter CEO Elon Musk tried to publicly goad distinguished scientist Peter Hotez (who spent many of the pandemic making an attempt to dispel vaccine disinformation) into debating Kennedy on the topic. Hotez refused, and anti-vaccine activists confirmed up exterior his house to harass him.
Kennedy has additionally been endorsed by Twitter co-founder Jack Dorsey, who shares Kennedy’s view that cryptocurrency like Bitcoin is an “train in democracy.” He’s obtained reward from right-wing figures together with Alex Jones of Infowars, former Trump adviser Michael Flynn, and Turning Level USA head Charlie Kirk. And former Trump aides Steve Bannon and Roger Stone assume he would make a really perfect working mate for Trump.
Why RFK Jr. might overperform in Iowa and New Hampshire
Kennedy’s menu of fringe beliefs received’t make a profitable candidacy. However some Democrats fear that he might win in Iowa and New Hampshire in the event that they maintain the primary major contests. Whereas Biden might win the nomination simply with out the delegates from these two states, ceding floor to a longshot candidate might nonetheless spotlight his weaknesses at a second when he must consolidate the celebration behind him.
The dispute over the first calendar remains to be ongoing and might not be resolved till September. The Democratic Get together — and Biden — need South Carolina to be the nation’s first contest, arguing that Iowa’s mismanagement of its 2020 caucuses is disqualifying and that South Carolina higher displays the range of the celebration. New Hampshire Democrats say that state regulation requires them to set the date for the first forward of different states’ contests. Biden’s marketing campaign has advised that he’ll refuse to be on the poll in New Hampshire if the state votes earlier than South Carolina.
That might be disastrous not just for his marketing campaign — giving credence to narratives about Biden’s vulnerability to extra conservative challengers — but additionally for different Democrats who’re counting on a giant title on the high of the ticket to lift voter turnout.
“President Biden not showing on the New Hampshire major poll might trigger nice hurt to his personal reelection and all down-ballot Democratic candidates on this key battleground state,” state celebration chair Ray Buckley mentioned. “We strongly consider President Biden ought to marketing campaign right here in New Hampshire to make sure his reelection and to assist elect Democrats at each stage of the ticket in 2024.”
The Iowa caucuses are a distinct beast within the sense that Democrats don’t want Biden’s approval to place his title ahead. Scott Brennan, an Iowa member of the Democratic Nationwide Committee’s Guidelines and Bylaws Committee, mentioned he’s assured that Iowa Democrats would present their help for the president regardless of once they vote.
However Selzer mentioned that it’s too early to rule out the chance {that a} candidate like Kennedy might construct up his presence within the state and eke out a better-than-expected efficiency that might be “doubtlessly embarrassing” to Biden.
“It’s going to get a whole lot of protection,” she mentioned. “I think conservative media may have a heyday: ‘Look how weak Joe Biden is.’ What the long-term lasting penalties [may be] depend upon how successfully that’s communicated and countered.”
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