Within the wake of Donald Trump’s victory within the 2024 presidential election, some {couples} planning same-sex weddings have begun to panic, anxious they may lose the appropriate to marry. An engaged marriage ceremony planner wrote in Vogue how she and her pals plan to maneuver up their weddings; a chaplain in Iowa helps dozens of {couples} plan for accelerated nuptials; advocates say they’re seeing an uptick in concern about marriage rights.“Individuals are very anxious, no query about that,” Jennifer Pizer, chief authorized officer for LGBTQ rights group Lambda Authorized, informed Vox. These worries stem from assaults that Trump and his allies have made on LGBTQ rights, although the president-elect didn’t instantly goal same-sex marriage throughout his marketing campaign. Trump as a substitute made anti-trans coverage a focus of his rhetoric, and modifications to LGBTQ rights seem extra prone to concentrate on rolling again protections for trans individuals quite than the elimination of same-sex marriage. There are additionally two safeguards in place — a Supreme Courtroom ruling and federal regulation — that make any assault which may come on same-sex marriage, whether or not from the manager department or elsewhere, more durable to make. Two main components, nonetheless, have LGBTQ advocates involved. The primary is the conservative make-up of the Supreme Courtroom. Similar-sex marriage is protected partly by the 2015 Obergefell v. Hodges Supreme Courtroom resolution. Beforehand, Supreme Courtroom Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito overtly expressed that they’d prefer to revisit the 2015 Obergefell resolution — which established a federal proper to marriage equality.The opposite members of the Courtroom haven’t attacked Obergefell of their writings, as Thomas and Alito have, and it’s not clear if there’s a courtroom majority to overturn the choice. Nevertheless, there’s all the time the likelihood that Trump might increase the Courtroom’s conservative majority throughout his subsequent time period — and if (a decently sized if, given their ages) he had been in a position to change among the Courtroom’s liberal justices, he might elevate extra judges in keeping with Thomas and Alito.The second is that Trump’s allies from the spiritual proper might foyer him to take a stance in opposition to same-sex marriage. Once more, Trump himself has not explicitly focused same-sex marriage, and has mentioned the choice was “settled.” However different distinguished Republicans, together with these in his orbit like Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), have mentioned they felt Obergefell was wrongly determined. Some distinguished conservative coverage paperwork meant to affect the subsequent Trump administration have additionally alluded to same-sex marriages in destructive methods. As an illustration, the Heritage Basis’s conservative coverage blueprint Challenge 2025 claims in a chapter with concepts for the Division of Well being and Human Companies that “social science stories that assess the target outcomes for youngsters raised in properties other than a heterosexual, intact marriage are clear: All different household kinds contain increased ranges of instability.” (Although Challenge 2025 cited some research to assist this declare, many refute it.)That mentioned, LGBTQ advocates observe that marriage equality appears much less prone to be a chief goal of the president-elect within the close to time period. “I believe there’s motive for individuals to be watching how issues unfold, [but also] not assuming that eliminating the liberty to marry is a high agenda merchandise for the incoming administration,” says Pizer. What protections does same-sex marriage have?Similar-sex marriage was established by Obergefell, and Congress handed extra (although restricted) protections for it in 2022.To ensure that same-sex marriage to get rolled again through the Trump administration, the Supreme Courtroom — and Congress — must act. Once more, whereas some distinguished Republicans have made their opposition to same-sex marriage clear, there doesn’t seem like overwhelming GOP demand that the follow be outlawed. Nevertheless, if it had been to be banned, right here’s what must occur. First, the Supreme Courtroom must overturn Obergefell. It isn’t but evident {that a} adequate variety of justices wish to reverse this resolution, although notably many of the dissenting voices in that case are nonetheless on the Courtroom, whereas many of the majority voices are gone. (As Vox’s Ian Millhiser has reported, it seems Justice Neil Gorsuch might facet with Alito and Thomas on overturning the ruling if given the possibility, however it’s much less sure the place the opposite conservative justices fall.)If the Courtroom did overturn Obergefell, the legality of same-sex marriage would fall to the states, with every state making its personal coverage. Folks in 32 states the place there are nonetheless same-sex marriage bans on the books might lose the appropriate to marry, and be compelled to journey elsewhere to take action. To additional undo protections for same-sex marriage, the courts or Congressional Republicans would additionally should repeal 2022’s Respect for Marriage Act. That regulation requires all states to acknowledge same-sex marriages, although it doesn’t require all states to difficulty marriage licenses. It additionally repeals the Protection of Marriage Act, which beforehand said that every one marriages are between a person and a lady, and mandates federal recognition of same-sex marriage. If Obergefell was overturned, the Respect for Marriage Act would assure that somebody who marries in a state that permits same-sex marriage, like California, might transfer to a state that has a ban in place, like Arkansas, and nonetheless have their marriage be legally acknowledged. It will not require states like Arkansas to marry same-sex {couples} within the state, nonetheless. There are methods the Respect for Marriage Act could possibly be struck down too, although they’re unlikely. The regulation could possibly be repealed by Congress, for instance, which shall be narrowly managed by Republicans. That appears much less possible due to the Republican assist it acquired when it handed in 2022, and since the laws would require 60 votes within the Senate, the place the GOP majority is slim. The regulation is also challenged in courtroom by states arguing that Congress overstepped its authority in telling them how one can deal with marriages, although it’s additionally not clear if that might achieve success. The loss of life of Obergefell and the Respect for Marriage Act characterize the worst-case situations for marriage equality. It’s potential that each might advance within the subsequent 4 years. However for the time being, neither seems to be a major intention for the incoming administration. You’ve learn 1 article within the final monthHere at Vox, we’re unwavering in our dedication to masking the problems that matter most to you — threats to democracy, immigration, reproductive rights, the surroundings, and the rising polarization throughout this nation.Our mission is to offer clear, accessible journalism that empowers you to remain knowledgeable and engaged in shaping our world. By turning into a Vox Member, you instantly strengthen our means to ship in-depth, unbiased reporting that drives significant change.We depend on readers such as you — be part of us.Swati SharmaVox Editor-in-Chief